We check.
Line by line.

KY-04: the $15.5 million operation to replace Thomas Massie

Checked August 20, 2026 · Source: FEC independent-expenditure aggregates for Thomas Massie (H2KY04121) and Ed Gallrein (H6KY04171), 2026 cycle, and FEC Schedule A receipts for MAGA KY (C00908723)

Our database lists challenger Ed Gallrein at $15,544,205 in Israel lobby money, the largest candidate figure we track. We reproduced that number from raw FEC aggregates. Three committees account for it:

• United Democracy Project (AIPAC's super PAC): $3,575,107 opposing Massie plus $579,319 supporting Gallrein, $4,154,426 total.
• RJC Victory Fund (Republican Jewish Coalition): $3,515,615 supporting Gallrein plus $362,844 opposing Massie, $3,878,459 total.
• MAGA KY: $6,200,914 opposing Massie plus $1,283,199 supporting Gallrein, $7,484,113 total.
• Combined: $15,516,998 in independent expenditures, matching our database figure within 0.2% (the remainder is direct donations).

"MAGA KY" doesn't sound like an Israel lobby committee. So we pulled its FEC donor filings. Its largest itemized receipts: $1,000,000 from Paul Singer of Elliott Management, among the Republican Jewish Coalition's most prominent backers; $750,000 from Preserve America PAC, the super PAC founded with Adelson money; over $5 million from America 21 PAC across repeated transfers; and $500,000 from MAGA Inc. Judge the label by the funders.

For the record, Massie has his own outside support: Kentucky First PAC ($1.5M for him), Kentucky 4th PAC ($6.7M against Gallrein), Make Liberty Win ($1.1M), and Defeating Communism PAC ($952K). Massie's own career total from pro-Israel PACs remains $0.

Caveats: figures are FEC processed independent-expenditure aggregates as of August 20, 2026, and grow as new filings post. Verify at fec.gov/data: search either candidate under "independent expenditures," and MAGA KY's receipts under committee C00908723.

Michigan Senate: how the $30M primary actually flowed

Checked August 20, 2026 · Source: FEC independent-expenditure aggregates for Haley Stevens (S6MI00426) and Abdul El-Sayed (S6MI00418), 2026 cycle, and FEC Schedule A receipts for A Stronger Michigan (C00952259)

CBS News reported AIPAC spent roughly $30 million to lift Haley Stevens over Abdul El-Sayed in the August primary. The FEC filings show how the pipeline worked, in two channels:

• The disclosed channel: United Democracy Project (AIPAC's super PAC) spent $8,437,449 supporting Stevens and $2,346,358 opposing El-Sayed. $10.8M, all under AIPAC's own name.
• The laundered channel: a super PAC called A Stronger Michigan spent $9,649,850 supporting Stevens. Its FEC receipts show $10.9 million — effectively all of its funding — came from Center Forward, a nonprofit that does not disclose its donors. Center Forward also spent $999,999 directly supporting Stevens.
• The other side of the ledger: every committee supporting El-Sayed combined, National Nurses United ($490K), Fighting for Michigan PAC ($1.1M), Common Defense ($290K), American Priorities ($154K), and MoveOn ($39K), spent about $2.1M. The pro-Stevens outside money outgunned it roughly 10 to 1.

El-Sayed's own career total from pro-Israel PACs: $0. Stevens' career total in our database, $36.2M+, includes this primary, her 2022 House race, and direct donations.

Caveats: "A Stronger Michigan" totals reflect itemized FEC receipts through the pre-primary filings; Center Forward's own funders are not disclosed anywhere, which is precisely the point. Verify at fec.gov/data under each candidate's independent expenditures and committee C00952259's receipts.

MD-05: $5.7M from AIPAC's super PAC for Steny Hoyer's open seat

Checked August 20, 2026 · Source: FEC independent-expenditure aggregates for Adrian Boafo (H6MD05321), 2026 cycle

Our database lists Maryland state delegate Adrian Boafo at $5,752,013. The FEC aggregates reproduce it: United Democracy Project spent $5,734,013 supporting Boafo in the primary for Steny Hoyer's open seat, plus small direct PAC donations (DMFI's direct spending shows $382). One committee, one candidate, nearly $6 million, in a safe-blue district where the primary is the election.

• Boafo's other outside support: $5,259,858 from Protect Progress (the crypto-industry PAC, which we do not count as Israel lobby money), $600,000 from AmeriPAC, which is Hoyer's own leadership PAC, and smaller committees.
• For scale: rival Harry Dunn's entire outside support was about $173K. No committee we found spent six figures for any other Democrat in the race.

Caveats: processed FEC aggregates as of August 20, 2026; totals grow as filings post. Verify at fec.gov/data under Boafo's independent expenditures.

CA-14: the shell chain, and a correction to our own database

Checked August 20, 2026 · Source: FEC independent-expenditure aggregates for Melissa Hernandez (H6CA14163) and FEC Schedule A receipts for Bold America (C00854299) and Project 218 (C00871368)

Our database listed Hernandez at $6.4M, a figure published by an outside tracker. We tried to reproduce it from FEC filings and could not. Here's what the filings do show, and it's a story of its own:

• Total outside spending supporting Hernandez: about $1.83M, from committees named Bold America ($664,921), Project 218 ($500,000), SD 2026 ($373,773), Pro-Choice Majority Action ($200,000), and For Our Values PAC ($86,447). No pro-Israel committee appears under its own name.
• But follow the funding: Bold America took $1,000,000 directly from United Democracy Project, AIPAC's super PAC, in two transfers (May 1 and June 2, 2026), alongside money from intermediaries called "Democrats 2026" and "Proximo Action."
• Project 218's money, $5.6M of it, came from a single entity called "Democracy Matters", which has no public donor trail we can find. Where that money originates, nobody can say from the filings.

So the honest statement is: at least $1M of AIPAC money reached the Hernandez race through a renamed intermediary, the full picture is deliberately obscured, and the $6.4M figure can't be confirmed from FEC records alone. Until it can, our database now lists Hernandez as "not listed" rather than repeat a number we can't stand behind. That's the standard: when we can't prove it, we don't print it, and when we got it wrong, we say so.

Caveats: PAC-to-PAC transfers make district-level attribution genuinely hard; more may surface in post-primary filings. Verify at fec.gov/data under committees C00854299 and C00871368.

Matt Dunlap (ME-02): is he taking Israel lobby money?

Checked August 13, 2026 · Source: FEC filings for Dunlap for Congress (C00922377), all reports through the July 2026 quarterly

Dunlap launched his primary run attacking Jared Golden's AIPAC endorsement and Israel weapons votes. So we checked whether his own money is clean. We verified line by line, not inferred.

• $0 from AIPAC, J Street, DMFI, Pro-Israel America, NORPAC, or any pro-Israel PAC or conduit.
• Total raised cycle-to-date: ~$1.21M, overwhelmingly individual and ActBlue small-dollar money.
• Total from ALL PACs and committees: $13,500, all five itemized: Free and Fair Democracy PAC ($5,000), National Nurses United ($3,000), Sara Gideon for Maine ($2,000), Pingree for Congress ($2,000), and Puget PAC ($1,500).
• Conduit scan of every itemized individual receipt (~4,100 entries across four reports): only conduits are ActBlue and one Zinc Collective PAC earmark bundle ($12,233, a Democratic donor collective, not pro-Israel). Zero AIPAC or J Street earmarks.
• Context: AIPAC money in ME-02 was on Golden's side ($1,071,069 career, per our database). Golden retired in November 2025. No United Democracy Project independent expenditures found in Maine this cycle.

Caveats: itemized data only covers donors over $200; small-dollar donors aren't traceable by anyone. Key filings at docquery.fec.gov: FEC-1993910 (Q2 2026), FEC-1989809 (pre-primary, amended), FEC-1961614 (Q1 2026), FEC-1939144 (Q4 2025).